Notices by DK (dk_dharmaraj@poa.st), page 10
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Kultur Terror 15 – "Russia-Ukraine War Update January 2023"
Louis and DK are in no danger of running out of stockpiled takes
therightstuff.biz/2023/01/19/kultur-terror-15-russia-ukraine-war-update-january-2023/
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Breakthrough at Kleshcheevka means Bakhmut is downgraded from "operational crisis" to "imminent encirclement"
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@RowdyRamzan @WashedOutGundamPilot @officalNIGR Right but that's my point, the loss of a tank is frequently not the loss of its crew, at a certain level we're not even talking "casualty sensitivity" so much as "marketing sensitivity"
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@RowdyRamzan @WashedOutGundamPilot This is @officalNIGR theory and I agree but there are at least 5000 Abrams in storage, at what point is the calculation "we can afford to lose some of these"
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@RowdyRamzan @weaf One of the legitimate big mistakes of the early phases of the war was not doing nearly enough SEAD. Surovikin (an Air Force general) put a dramatic final end to that mistake.
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@WashedOutGundamPilot Usgov is ramping up military production for a 2025 target date. Leaving aside how realistic that is qua industrial policy, ~18 months is hypothetically long enough to make proper tank crews out of median Slavs
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I'm not ontologically committed to a bull case for Russia but it strikes me that the best bear case is several thousand Abrams and "we don't want pictures of our baby getting blown up" strikes me as too short sighted of a reason for it not to happen. They're literally there for WW3, when exactly are they going to be put to better use? 2000 properly crewed Abrams would be one hell of a headache for Russian command
Ultimately I'm going to read their absence from the Ukraine as an implicit indictment of the Ukrainian government by NATO. "We don't trust you not to fuck this up" even though NATO is basically straight up running the operational and maybe even the strategic planning. Which just makes it even more insane that the policy is rejection of Russia's pathway to de escalation
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Advance ivo Seversk. Wagner is currently pushing approximately 1-2 km per day. If that continues (and RU can take the heights around the city, which they could not accomplish over the summer) Seversk will very soon be surrounded
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@officalNIGR I haven't seen "seriously we need food and ammunition" videos like this for a while, OK maybe it's just a Russian psyop or whatever, but the general picture I see converging is, the Ukraine can barely keep the lights on as is (catastrophic damage to thermal power plant turbines yesterday, that's new), it is literally 100% the CIA-USDOS that is keeping them afloat both in terms of paying government salaries and in terms of organizing the distribution of war materiel
Thing is, even ZOG media is now admitting that NATO stockpiles are on track to be depleted some time in the back half of 2023. And new production capacity, assuming it gets off the ground without a hitch, won't start being relevant until the middle of 2024 at the earliest. So yeah I mean looking back at it I think you're right that the "operational encirclements" haven't really panned out in terms of actually definitively choking out the defenders' supply, that is a great point, but I'm not sure how much it really matters when they don't have the electricity to move the shells that NATO is running out of, or what 200 mismatched light wheeled IFVs are going to do about it (200 Abrams would be a different story, but the USA can barely spare 20)
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I'm the best analyst the glowniggers never had because they made me their mortal enemy
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RU is currently shaping the Siege of Bakhmut. UA can either allow themselves to be shaped into a cauldron, or withdraw from the city. The political incentive is to give battle in order to do Mariupol 2 (But Somehow Even Gayer). The military incentive is to preserve your force for a last stand on the actual last stand line, which runs from Slavyansk-Kramatorsk through the "Banana of Doom" terminating in Konstantinovka. I expect the political goals to trump the military goals, but a minimally contested withdrawal from Bakhmut is not out of the cards and there are rumors that the CIA is advising the jewkrainian government to withdraw.
In operational terms, Bakhmut has had 2 of its 3 rail supply lines already entirely physically cut, with the third now coming under Russian fire control. There are some minor road supply lines, but these are liable to be cut with a Russian advance to Konstantinovka, bypassing and surrounding Bakhmut... which is increasingly looking to be the strategic-level plan (and indeed there has been gossip to this effect for weeks). I expect Gerasimov to put the Seversk garrison in the same dilemma: withdraw or be surrounded by the bypassing drive to Slavyansk, forming the northern end of the pincer.
The Russian army in the Ukraine was recently reorganized into three General Staff-level command groupings. It makes intuitive sense that these two operations would be tasked to two of the three army groups. The third will likely be held in reserve until there is a gap or breakthrough to exploit.
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IMAGINE
MY
SHOCK
nbcnews.com/tech/internet/justin-roiland-rick-morty-allegations-domestic-violence-charges-rcna65403?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma
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@Ummie dead of cock inhalation
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Hey big guy, how are you doing?
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@NotImportant @Terry @Tripp it's a universal rule of warfare that enemy casualties are overreported, hits and sometimes even just shots get recorded as victories even if they're glancing or they miss. not sure what you mean by "benefit of the doubt" though, UA was still claiming 10k KIA moments before van der Leyden and the Western press let it slip that the actual death toll was at least an order of magnitude higher
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@daviddlevine Gas yourself kike
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@AnimeMothPussy @KarlDahl @BowsacNoodle @Boomerman @RowdyRamzan >Putin successor
almost certain to be Medvedev, who appears to have traversed the Russian version of the conservative-to-reactionary-pipeline over the past 8 years
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@NotImportant @Terry @Tripp UA infamously underreports KIAs by several times (at least 2-3 but probably more like 5-10) because they leave the bodies of their servicemen out in the field. that way they can be declared "missing" or "deserted" and their families don't have to get paid. there are reams and reams of Ukrainian social media posts/pages/groups from families asking where their "missing" sons are
also I could believe 75 Russian casualties a day, but not KIAs. divide that by 3ish to get RU KIAs
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Edgy conservatives perpetually on the verge of discovering who runs the "supranational empire"
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The Biden scandal is looking increasingly like, yes, a very shiny object for GOP voters to play with, but also, the VPOTUS possibly selling classified information to the Ukraine around 2014-2016
DK
t.me/DKRWDS
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