Notices by NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)

This is someone's job as a Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Specialist:

1) Visits NYC office
2) Check emails, write notes, meeting with supervisor
3) Lunch
4) Orientation for new-hires about diversity (she is "exhausted" at this point)
5) Wine tasting work event for all women attorneys

Into economic slowdowns banks/financials are usually first to trim, and I've already seen that happen. I've heard other industries cutting back, but we are no where close to max pain in terms of the labor market

@VeddyBadAng

That makes sense but my point is about comparative wages. I’m making a big assumption about her pay but I’d imagine her frustrations stem from the fact that the minimum wage now is so high (due to inflation)

Enduring low pay now for a future higher pay is totally reasonable and should be expected, to your point. But when that low pay is only 10% - 15% more than bare minimum wage (with no education requirement) at the expense of 10s of thousands in college debt, what’s the point?

At the time, I was sacrificing social life on the week nights and weekends to better my career and earn a good salary relative to my peers

Now these similar demands are in place but you earn dogshit for pay. Why work a 9-5 job, plus a 1hr commute give-or-take for wages similar to what minimum wage earners earn now given our high inflation word?

Fast food workers now earn ~$15 - $20 an hour now. My first job just 8yrs ago in Big 4 accounting earned ~$30 an hour, and still does... and for what?

This video of a Gen Z girl complaining has gone viral, but I get her point.

When I graduated only 8yrs ago, I had a similar schedule: wake up 7am, commute, work until 6pm, go to gym/home/sleep. It was a busy daily schedule, and even on the weekends I was studying for my CFA to better my career

The difference then was that I was being paid, at the time, good competitive salary to sacrifice so much.

9 - 5 workers now make shit wages for such sacrifice to their social lives, so what's the point?

Happy Jihad Day!

Caroline Ellison testimony outfit breakdown

On the one hand I like to follow the Latin saying, “De mortuis nil nisi bonum.” Loosely translates to: “Never speak ill of the dead.”

On the other hand, these corrupt politicians, on BOTH sides, like Feinstein have stolen taxpayer dollars for decades through various funding and taxation mechanisms to better themselves. Feinstein recently sold two of her vacation homes and her estate is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. On a salary of a few hundred thousand a year.

Fuck these people.

Genuinely curious about @eriner ‘s take here, would love some feedback. Maybe I’m an asshole, but I don’t mourn these politician’s passing. Thieves of the taxpayer, in my mind.

@WashedOutGundamPilot

Not in a 100% allocation, but perhaps a 0.069% allocation wouldn't hurt... as a lottery ticket play

Nothing like portfolio building/research on a Saturday afternoon. Red is the S&P, green is this portfolio.

The purpose of this portfolio is to dampen draw-downs in extreme market conditions while still benefiting from highly correlated broad US equity market exposure. This effect can be seen in 2008 - 2009.

Components:
XLV (Health Care): 25%
XLP (Consumer Staples): 16.67%
XLK (Technology): 25%
TLT (20yr Treasury): 16.67%
GLD (Gold): 16.66%

This isn't investment advice.

Continued...

Every year on Sept 11th one of the brokerage groups I trade with BGC has a celebrity day to raise money for victims of 9/11

The brokerage brings in celebrities, and traders will give them orders to execute (with help of the real brokers), and all commission goes to the charity.

This year I got to talk to Dave Portnoy and AnnaSophie Robb. Bought 200 SPX options with Dave and sold 10k SPY options with AnnaSophie.

Fun way to spice up a super boring day at work

My friend Tina got to talk to Matthew McConaughey on the phone today. She trades oil derivatives, mostly options

Multi-leg options trades have funny names, like "skinny fly" and "fence", which is what they're talking about

A skinny fly (+1 / -1 / +1) is a variation of the butterfly (+1 / -2 / +1). The fence is -1 / -1 / +1 options

+ vs - just indicate which options you're packaging together, so you could buy +1 sell -2 and buy +1 for the butterfly. The order is determined by moneyness

@NoBeret @Mesooohahny

More or less correct yeah, and I have no idea what Operation Sandman is. It sounds like bologna.

Foreign nations have zero incentive to dump Treasury holdings, particularly as most other sovereign credit looks like shit in comparison. Higher inflation elsewhere, more credit/default risk, etc.

Treasuries owned by anyone are sold in the open market, so natural buyers would also emerge. The likelihood they all dump? Zero. No evidence for it

@NoBeret @Mesooohahny

Here's a breakdown of foreign debt ownership:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/246420/major-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/

The only real concern at this point is Japan given how much they own. If the Bank of Japan must continue its aggressive yield curve control policy (BoJ buys their own credit/Japanese stocks), this would cause them to sell some Treasuries thereby putting some pressure on US credit markets.

But really not much, foreign demand for Treasuries is still quite strong.

Can't believe this isn't Babylon Bee

I thought Christie couldn't get more gay

https://nypost.com/2023/08/06/chris-christie-gifts-zelensy-handwritten-lyrics-to-bon-jovis-its-my-life/

@DrFell @midway

Yep, perhaps the most boring FOMC day of the past 3 years. FOMC press conference was a dud, statement had about 3 words altered which meant nearly nothing.

Here's the updated today/yesterday SOFR curve and my dashboard.

No real major moves. SOFR still pricing in one more 25bps hike in Sep. Large move in the front Jun Sep, Red/Green outrights saw the largest moves day-over-day. This is mostly pricing in the dovish Fed speak from J Powell today.

Nothing crazy

@midway @DrFell

Depends on the vol you're talking about

Fixed strike index vol came off 40bps on the open. Largely in anticipation of a large customer (holding 54k long put spreads, about 13mm Vega) in Aug31st and Sep. He sold out 24k of the Aug31st ahead of FOMC, but kept the Sept on (30k)

Fixed strike vol began rising again into the meeting in the fronts; front week bid about 55bps on the day, while front months net up 15bps

So fixed strike vol actually went higher today across most tenor

That one trader who has been with the firm for ages and no one really knows what exactly he does anymore

Spoiler this is me

Based female addresses the feminists' support of OnlyFans girls

The purpose of this post is to describe how I read/watch the Treasury yield curve for trading/investing signals and information.

When the Fed lowers/raises rates, they do this (now) by adjusting the overnight rate at which prime banks lend/borrow with one another. There’s tons of technical info about this (more here: https://twitter.com/concodanomics/status/1572379548653850625), but for our purposes just know that they set the < 30 day rates.

This is referred to as the "target rate."

Continued…