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1. Rose (java@freeatlantis.com)'s status on Tuesday, 01-Aug-2023 02:40:24 JST Rose

   I never trust CNN even when I agree.
   CNN: “Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.” One commenter said Trump is an incumbent. Strange, historical days.

   • Boomerman (boomerman@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 01-Aug-2023 02:40:21 JST Boomerman

     in reply to

     • d
     • CEO of Monoeye Dating
     • synapsid
     @synapsid @deprecated_ii @ceo_of_monoeye_dating @Java Theyll do nigger riots again if they have too. I doubt a lot of the stealing parts. They meddled with media and changing ballot harvesting rules but trump was a dogshit president
   • d (deprecated_ii@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 01-Aug-2023 02:40:22 JST d

     in reply to

     • CEO of Monoeye Dating
     @ceo_of_monoeye_dating @Java past elections do not model the future well, because in the past they at least pretended to play fair. they weren't, but appearances mattered, and they only put their finger on the scales so much
     
     now? lol
   • synapsid (synapsid@nicecrew.digital)'s status on Tuesday, 01-Aug-2023 02:40:22 JST synapsid

     in reply to

     • d
     • CEO of Monoeye Dating
     They stole the election in 2020 and there were no consequences. Why wouldn't they just do the same thing again in 2024 lmao
   • CEO of Monoeye Dating (ceo_of_monoeye_dating@bae.st)'s status on Tuesday, 01-Aug-2023 02:40:23 JST CEO of Monoeye Dating

     in reply to
     @Java It's a boomer meme, but even this far out a Trump win is predictable if we assume that elections are conducted similarly to how they have been conducted in the past.
     
     Lichtman's "keys to the white house" model works well, and it's pretty simple: basically "incumbent wins if and only if 5 or fewer of these thresholds are not met."
     
     Biden has failed:
     1) Party Mandate (Republicans gained in the midterms)
     6) Long-term economy
     7) Policy Change (His two flagship mandates - ending COVID and student loan forgiveness - have failed)
     10) Military Failure (Afghanistan)
     11) Military Success
     12) Incumbent Charisma
     
     Biden could, in theory, turn things around, but he needs either of:
     -Economic miracle
     -Supreme court to not block student loan forgiveness
     -Military success (for example, if NATO were to swoop in and kick Russia out of Ukraine).
     
     while none of:
     -Media turns against him
     -A recession during the election
     -Social unrest
     
     Whether or not you think Trump will win boils down to:
     -Belief that past elections model the future well
     -Belief that Biden can succeed on one of the three fronts above.
     image.png
   • synapsid (synapsid@nicecrew.digital)'s status on Tuesday, 01-Aug-2023 02:40:41 JST synapsid

     in reply to

     • d
     • CEO of Monoeye Dating
     • Boomerman
     For sure, he fumbled the bag in 2020, that just made their job to 'fortify' the election all the easier.