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1. CEO of Monoeye Dating (ceo_of_monoeye_dating@bae.st)'s status on Tuesday, 01-Aug-2023 02:40:23 JST CEO of Monoeye Dating

   in reply to
   @Java It's a boomer meme, but even this far out a Trump win is predictable if we assume that elections are conducted similarly to how they have been conducted in the past.
   
   Lichtman's "keys to the white house" model works well, and it's pretty simple: basically "incumbent wins if and only if 5 or fewer of these thresholds are not met."
   
   Biden has failed:
   1) Party Mandate (Republicans gained in the midterms)
   6) Long-term economy
   7) Policy Change (His two flagship mandates - ending COVID and student loan forgiveness - have failed)
   10) Military Failure (Afghanistan)
   11) Military Success
   12) Incumbent Charisma
   
   Biden could, in theory, turn things around, but he needs either of:
   -Economic miracle
   -Supreme court to not block student loan forgiveness
   -Military success (for example, if NATO were to swoop in and kick Russia out of Ukraine).
   
   while none of:
   -Media turns against him
   -A recession during the election
   -Social unrest
   
   Whether or not you think Trump will win boils down to:
   -Belief that past elections model the future well
   -Belief that Biden can succeed on one of the three fronts above.
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