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1. Royper (royper@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:03:06 JST Royper

   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks
   Good idea or marketing scam?
   
   RT: https://poa.st/objects/12cd6988-2052-45dd-ad5a-1072181b07f3
   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks likes this.
   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks (washedoutgundampilot@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:03:06 JST Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks

     in reply to

     @Royper Vaporware, probably dead end if it’s the thing I’m thinking of. IIRC they have plans to use that as the demo to test out the design, then later convert to something jet powered so it has longer legs.

     Really depends on how flight dynamics are, I tend to see failure in anything that strays too far from the norm. Guys don’t have the muscle memory to respond emergently to things in it, and they have to build time….and that’s money. Then the inevitable crashes send the insurance costs upwards. It’s a whole cycle.

     If they manage to deliver on all their promises, then…..well they need to make sure costs are acceptable…..but even then any operator worth his ass will probalby wait 10 to 20 before taking a risk, lest they end up with some headache when it goes under and the A/C ain’t supported anymore. Aviation is surrounded by a graveyard of great ideas and beautiful designs….but there’s a reason we’re still buying 1/2 million dollar planes from the 60’s

   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks (washedoutgundampilot@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:08:47 JST Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks

     in reply to

     @Royper Been a long time since I dealt with this, had some people asking and about a year back it baffled me because this company is your typical engineer/aviation nerd outfit. Everyone gets it wrong, they either go all-in on glitz and marketing, or engineering, and both end up failing.

     They need to delineate exactly who they think will buy this thing. If they think they can sell them to fractionals and charters….eh, unless the performance is REALLY impressive I don’t see them unseating stuff like the Pilatus/Caravan on the low end and the full spectrum of bizjets. Clients don’t like propellers, they’re niggardly to them.

     When you’re talking up some skanks about taking a ride on your “private plane” they’re literally, audibly crestfallen when they spot the propellers. You can hear their panties sahara-fy themselves when you hit the starter. Rich people are even worse, and they DO care a whole lot about how their plane looks/sounds/feels to others. (lots of stories about this in the celeb scene)

     https://ottoaviation.com/technology

   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks (washedoutgundampilot@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:13:11 JST Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks

     in reply to

     @Royper So they’re courting independent operators….in a way the hardest market to chase. They’re super, insanely stingy and they have a tremendous dearth of skill and professionalism. You sell to them, and before you know it you’re just like the “doctor killer” bonanza or T-6 ground looper. You’ll have a few high-level douchebags from other industries plow into the ground because this thing won’t handle like any other plane (pushers are rare, good luck training on something smaller to get a feel for it) and their instincts won’t be adequately calibrated to it.

     Before you know it the insurance companies start saying they won’t insure anyone for single-pilot until they have 500 hrs PIC in type, or they require a type rating (depends on weight, if they get under 12,500 they end up in a fun place like the mitsubishi Mu-2) already. Now buyers need to budget some pilot to employ up front babysitting them every time they wanna go bang the mistress at a ski resort.

     All of that stuff adds up to a slow seller, so they’re back to hoping they can get something like JetEdge, or whatever one of those faggots is solvent these days. And their clients don’t wanna walk out to the ramp and see a loud fart prop

   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks (washedoutgundampilot@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:15:08 JST Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks

     in reply to

     @Royper A fun plane to consider was THIS one, which kinda aimed in the same direction. We share an airport with one of these, and it’s indeed loud as hell and VERY ugly to listen to. You can be loud, as long as you’re cool. You can’t be high pitched and flappy though. This sounds way too high and abrasive from the ground, and that undoes all the sexiness.

     The dudes have told me that pax really warm up to it after a while though, once they get over the props. Helps that they can brag about it being “italian, like a ferrari”

   • Christmas_Man (christmas_man@thebag.social)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:15:10 JST Christmas_Man

     in reply to

     • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks
     I imagine if they're looking to hit that same market segment as Piaggio tried with the Avanti, they're gonna be DOA. There's a reason you can find a King Air on just about any ramp anywhere in the world for a reason.
     Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks likes this.
   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks (washedoutgundampilot@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:15:30 JST Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks

     in reply to

     @Royper It’s fun sharing this w/ people off the clock, this is our bread and butter

   • Royper (royper@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:15:31 JST Royper

     in reply to

     • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks
     @WashedOutGundamPilot As always your detailed oriented insight is much appreciated
   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks (washedoutgundampilot@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:23:27 JST Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks

     in reply to

     • Christmas_Man

     @Christmas_Man @Royper Out of curiosity I looked to see fi they’re even still making them. No surprise there’s like, 3 different insolvencies in their history. Surprisingly it says they made almost 220 in 2017, or about 250 today. A whole bunch were sold to the italian gov, so it’s not like they’re selling on strength….

     Funny to note “the fractional aircraft operator Avantair was Piaggio’s largest client, with a fleet of 57 Avanti aircraft,[27] before they went bankrupt and the fleet was liquidated.”

     Sometime I advise the buyers on a lot is to decide their target passenger. The hubby can nerd out and buy a plane logically, decide to get the best speed/range/economy he can, but if the wife doesn’t like the plane she’ll drag her feet any time they wanna go somewhere. She’ll find excuses NOT to fly. If he buys something she likes, and makes the experience enjoyable, then he’ll be flying that sumbitch every saturday.

     It’s the same here. The piaggio is a fine aircraft, considering it by left-brain standards. It’s got a promising blend of features, but if the people paying the bills don’t like it, why drop $10 million on it? This industry is expensive, just like a luxury sports car you can’t m;ove metal by talking about spec sheets. That sells to the autists, and despite their prevalence in aviation, you still have a better time selling to normies.

     Would the average wannabe 8/10 gold digger want to get fingered in the piaggio, or a Phenom? They’re about the same:

   • Royper (royper@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:30:54 JST Royper

     in reply to

     • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks
     @WashedOutGundamPilot So what is your favorite commercial failure with wings?
   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks (washedoutgundampilot@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:30:54 JST Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks

     in reply to

     @Royper Maybe not a particular aircraft, but an archetype of “Super high performance kitplane detuned to meet american LSA standards” like this one. I still think about buying one of these sometime, Ferried one once and it was a real hoot even with the flat six. It was REALLY meant to be an affordable hot rod, but they had to clip its wings a bit in order to get it slow enough to meet LSA standards (so boomers can fly it w/ a driver license instead of a medical exam)

     Look at the glide ratio on that thing: 15 to 1. That’s NOT a beginner’s plane, it’s sleek and slippery, very graceful and rewards careful power management. If you come in 10 knots fast in the flare, you’re gonna need 1500 feet to bleed it off and bring her down.

     Also on the radio you can say you’re “Aryan 16645“ which is cool. Aryan Lightning.

     Would have to fly it again w/ the full powered engine though, just to be sure. But for the money….I really liked it. Buyer probably totaled it by now though, he was coming from a 152 with all of 60 hrs tt.

   • Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks (washedoutgundampilot@poa.st)'s status on Saturday, 26-Aug-2023 13:37:12 JST Woggy's Zeonic Frolicks

     in reply to

     @Royper What’s funny is that the stuff that you would think would fail ended up winning tremendously. The Cirrus isn’t a fun plane to fly, it handles like a drive by wire SUV, and it’s super expensive. But it’s been the hottest selling marque for like, 15 years straight now. Because it’s not marketing to pilots, it’s marketing to people who have a mission.

     Too many aircraft designers try to chase the wrong thing. Another would-be failure: The carbon cub. Who would have guessed you could get people to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on the same damn plane their grandpa laughed at? Well, turns out a whole lot of rich guys love to buy the fantasy of being a rugged adventurer. Carbon cub is the only GA brand I can think of that actually came out and listed itself on the stock market. Usually they’re only taken off.

     Sure, the cub brand will probably die off w/ the boomers, it doesn’t hold as much romance for younger guys (our youngest is like, 49 yo to buy one IIRC. But most CC stuff sells direct)

     I like this thing, but it’s not been around long enough to fail just yet. I just like the optimism of selling homebuilt turboprop caravans. I doubt they’ll make more than 50, their facilities are charmingly uh…..old fashioned (i.e. looks like your garage) but they have their finger on the pulse of what weirdos up north want in a plane, and with MOSAIC they just might be able to have some kind of market for a piston engined variant. (understanding I’m an autist/pilot, so for me I overlook the ugliness and actually buy the spec sheet, which is why I’m not the guy who can afford one IRL)