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I think a lot of people thought these things were just constantly increasing and guaranteed rather than increasing complexity with decreasing returns which without something special would result in a plateau.
Many have hoped that "AI" is that something special, but the level of base complexity in LLMs is so high that it isn't a silver bullet.
RT: https://poa.st/objects/6b5d66a5-93e3-4af7-9747-a613311d51b4
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@sickburnbro @PraxisOfEvil This is something I've considered quite a bit, that a financial/societal system which is based on endless growth (the ideology of a cancer cell) would have to have some sort of pseudo-rationale behind it. In this case it looks like it was the assumption that productivity would endlessly increase to catch up and there would be predictable, periodic tech discoveries to help provide boosts and 'lift all boats'
The plan didn't work out
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@TrevorGoodchild @Hertz @BattleDwarfGimli @PraxisOfEvil I think you can explain it well to even 95IQ when you present it well. I think it takes +1 to abstractly apply it to "should I do this"
Video games like minecraft model compount interest in how grain is grown - put x seeds in get x*1.05 seeds out at time t+20. Most people will get it that if you want to be growing 40 wheat you need some time, and you'll start getting more "free" seeds as time goes on.
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@Hertz @BattleDwarfGimli @PraxisOfEvil @sickburnbro Just understanding compound interest takes a +1 SD IQ minimum
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@BattleDwarfGimli @PraxisOfEvil @sickburnbro Because it makes boomers feel good to see 'big line go up'
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@TrevorGoodchild @BattleDwarfGimli @PraxisOfEvil @sickburnbro It's also partly the result of most people's inability to see beyond second order effects.
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I've always quietly wondered about that (because admittedly, I'm not great at macro economics) - why is permanent growth seen as desirable? It is self-evidently unsustainable.
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@TrevorGoodchild To all I told to get fixed rate mortgages for the last eight years...
You're welcome.
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@sickburnbro This is a good analogy but the popularity of ARMs would argue otherwise, I was gobsmacked by how many normies fell for those
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@brigrammer @BattleDwarfGimli @TrevorGoodchild @Hertz @PraxisOfEvil @sickburnbro People lived well enough for the longest time before mortgages, and I know plenty of people who bought real estate without loaning a cent. Rather than facilitate home ownership loans have driven prices through the roof, and as is with all usury have traded short-term benefit (having the home sooner) for long-term detriment (paying it off much, much longer). The solution to loans, and something modernites struggle to understand, is "be content with your wages".
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@dubbub @BattleDwarfGimli @TrevorGoodchild @Hertz @PraxisOfEvil @sickburnbro How does this work in America where people are trying to escape the ever encroaching nigger menace? Or to buy things like machines for their businesses? In the past, people did not change social class except after multiple generations.
Debt enables the competent but poor to escape poverty by using their future earnings today. I came from a poor family and if I was shackled to my wages I wouldn't be doing well. It also mean the incompetent wealthy can be put to ruin by their own folly.
> "be content with your wages"
This very statement offends me at a spiritual level, I was not made for such a sentiment and my soul screams at it with wrath and the threat of action.
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@brigrammer @BattleDwarfGimli @TrevorGoodchild @Hertz @PraxisOfEvil @sickburnbro There is no fixing usury, it's why the Bible forbids it. Money should be lent to family members at no interest, or by the state to deserving individuals. Fiat currency shouldn't exist either, that too is usury.
Had we obeyed God we wouldn't have this problem. Sadly usury was always a tool of the powerful, used to finance wars, elections, and as a phantom tax, so maybe we need a world where usury isn't possible or necessarily anymore, and to take to heart Augustine's just war doctrine.
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@dubbub @BattleDwarfGimli @TrevorGoodchild @Hertz @PraxisOfEvil @sickburnbro I could get a mortgage and have a house now, which I pay the cost of over many years, or no house now but no interest. You may think the latter is more moral somehow, but it means renting which is paying for not having a house. You might contend families could loan, or a good state could give loans, or...but that is not going to be the case.
Loans are a mechanism for moving money through time (see infographic I made). The problems of usury are in people making poor decisions, not in the ability to pay a premium for future funds. If the interest does not compound, the fixed cost must higher and the duration of the loan lower to net to zero.
If I give a man a loan, I expect payment in excess of my principal - otherwise I would simply rent that the money was sought for. Anyone who thinks money works otherwise probably doesn't have much money or is consumed in debt.
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My first reaction when I fully understood compound interest in relation to loans and banking was, "this is fucking evil".
But now I know the origins of it, and I understand that my reaction was justified.
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@BattleDwarfGimli @TrevorGoodchild @Hertz @PraxisOfEvil @sickburnbro The only alternative to compound interest is either much steeper fixed interest or some sort of interest with extra steps.
Present money is always worth more than future money, plus the risk of default and other costs.
Debt is a powerful tool to do things now too expensive to afford by deferring the costs into the future - the problem is people who have no ability to make long term decisions being given such a dangerous tool. Most business and home ownership would be impossible without it.
There is no free lunch when it comes to finance short of a nationalized banking scheme in a high trust ethnostate, which would require a whole lot of expulsion and executions to achieve.
Sick Burn, Bro
Trevor Goodchild:verified::pondering_orb:
Hertz
BattleDwarfGimli
Judge Dread
dubbub :windmill_of_friendship: ☦️
brigrammer
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