You're right that this higher participation in transactions on the network is a recent phenomenon, and it also happened in the bull run during 2021. However the current fees are about 5x what they should normally be, normally meaning in a busy market, so someone is very clearly spamming the network with the intention of jacking fees in the short term. At worst, fees will go down by about 5x over the next week or so, as this amount of fee burning cannot be sustained.
Notices by NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com), page 3
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Monday, 08-May-2023 00:50:28 JST NBS
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Monday, 08-May-2023 00:49:43 JST NBS
Bitcoin is currently under a practical DoS (Denial of Service) attack.
I say practical because service (transactions) is not technically being denied, it's just expensive right now. Someone is spamming transactions in the mempool, causing fees to be expensive, effectively pushing small fee transactions back in priority.
As a miner, I enjoy this as fees are jacked. As a user of bitcoin, this simply means layer 1 transactions are expensive right now and will eventually go back down to normal.
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Monday, 08-May-2023 00:49:42 JST NBS
It's important to note that this is how bitcoin is intended to operate, and the fees are still far lower than ETH gas fees (which is hilarious to me).
Quick recap on the blockchain: timely blockspace is scarce and requires a fee to use, the higher the demand for blockspace, the higher the fee required to be included in the next block.
So the person behind this practical DoS attack is burning money to perform this attack. Nothing abnormal about how the fee market is reacting.
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 10:06:41 JST NBS
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant
This guy. Again, a nice dude to socialize with and I still text him as a friend, but he's not a great trader. Used to do some really shady shit in the pit.
I remember one time he made several trades in the SPX pit, didn't card them up (process and post them to the public tape for everyone to see), later made more public trades against them, and then processed the trades at worse prices. Almost got his ass kicked that day.
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 09:57:08 JST NBS
5) Another CDS post... doomers love credit default swap charts after 2008... https://aspiechattr.me/@WallStreetSilv/110055500802963909 UBS is doing fine and is more or less backed by the Swiss central bank at this point
6) https://aspiechattr.me/@WallStreetSilv/110010556242814968 It's not accurate to visualize this type of graph on a 1:1 scale given confounding variables, you have to normalize this vs inflation or GDP to get an accurate representation
You get the point.
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 09:57:07 JST NBS
I linked back to some random mastodon account which relays their tweets because I was unable to go back to a date beyond like March on their official Twitter. They just post so much.
They do post some good content, but by and large it just seems like another inflammatory clickbait account. Good to keep an eye on, largely an ignore though.
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 09:56:20 JST NBS
3) https://aspiechattr.me/@WallStreetSilv/110080686624009529 CDS prices don't reflect the fear of a bank's deposits, rather it's ability to pay back liabilities (solvency). Schwab is well collateralized, CDS prices across the industry rose on increased panic.
4) https://aspiechattr.me/@WallStreetSilv/110070954265484215 High yield (junk bond) spreads have nothing to do with, in terms of correlations, bank failures. He should measure the bank's specific debt vs treasuries for a better yield spread analysis
Continued
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 09:56:11 JST NBS
A few examples of his nonsense:
1) https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1653818714469326848?s=20 Nonsense because the Fed and Treasury are not at all in the same category as the degen firms going under here
2) https://aspiechattr.me/@WallStreetSilv/110083989411996635 No evidence of their sales "accelerating", China held Treasuries which matured and they rolled those $ assets into gold
Continued
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 08:42:16 JST NBS
When I get home later I'll post some examples, but it's just obvious that he often simply posts for clicks.
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 08:42:11 JST NBS
I take issue with many of his posts which are simply "bear porn" or doomer posts. Example is when he, months ago, was talking about how banks had "X TRILLIONS!!!!" of derivative exposure, when he was talking about notional value. Which doesn't represent real risk or anything whatsoever. It's just inflammatory content to get clicks.
He posts some good stuff, but often its just clickbait type material. He's just not an informed trader or legit market participant, posts talking points.
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 08:42:05 JST NBS
Love these edits but dislike Wall Street Silver, this one is good though
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 00:05:40 JST NBS
Trading firms have high turnover rates. Stress, getting fired, leaving for a competitor, or just a change of life.
Since moving upstairs, I sat next to our VIX trader who I got to know quite well. Down to Earth guy, wicked smart, but a social and genuine person.
After the close today he leaned over and told me he was resigning, only after about a year and a half of being with us. Moving to a different career. He then told the team, and it was his last day
Gonna miss him, I wish him well
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 00:05:00 JST NBS
Wow. That was quicker than I expected. WAL down 62% today, halted for trading on news headlines and volatility.
Move on to the next!
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 00:04:58 JST NBS
In no particular order: Western Alliance Bancorp (ticker WAL), Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp (ticker MCB), and East West Bancorp (ticker EWBC) all look like total trash. I would keep your eyes on them, as they're most exposed.
Less shit but still concerning: Eagle Bancorp Inc (EGBN), Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST), HomeStreet Inc (HMST), Keycorp (KEY), and HarborOne Bancorp Inc (HONE) are also not particularly well off.
I would run from any of these banks.
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 05-May-2023 00:04:58 JST NBS
Another good example both gold and Bitcoin responding strongly to further bank failures/panic.
PacWest Bancorp falls 58% after hours, down to $2.70. Down from $28 in March and $9 just days ago. Much of their problems lie in the CRE portfolio as opposed to the HTM portfolio like SVB. The situation continues to look worse.
Gold futures after hours are up 1.05%, BTC up 2.9%. This isn't about what's better, as gold is just more stable/secure.
Point is = bank panic is good for gold and BTC owners
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Sunday, 16-Apr-2023 03:24:54 JST NBS
@radix023 @threalist @thatguyoverthere
Fair point, about taxes being incomprehensible. I majored in accounting and keep up on IRS publications relevant to my filing situation.
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Sunday, 16-Apr-2023 03:24:24 JST NBS
Taxes filed, paid what I owed.
Though I always owe and never get a refund, I did have a couple wins:
While I made 16.4% in my personal investment portfolio, I was required to pay no tax on the gains. I sold then re-bought some Bitcoin in December to capture a realized loss to offset my gains in traditional investments. Wash sale rule doesn't apply to crypto, so it's allowed.
I was also able to claim some depreciation in the LLC to help offset some of that income.
Still... Fuck the IRS
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Friday, 31-Mar-2023 09:37:15 JST NBS
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Monday, 30-Jan-2023 03:19:30 JST NBS
Me and the boys on sheep electrolytes
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NBS (nbs@noagendasocial.com)'s status on Tuesday, 10-Jan-2023 10:37:50 JST NBS
Whew, glad we can put this all behind us now