Conversation

From one of the lads on telegram https://t.me/NIGRScholars/1359

>Hezbollah is not doing what I had anticipated and drawing in the IDF to fight in the valleys and villages. They are standing on the contact line and trading blows. Whether this is doctrine or just a successful picket defense or an opportunity one time maneuver because the IOF airforce was busy with other things that night either way it’s a bad sign for the Jews.

>It means the next attempt by the IOF ground forces will need to be larger and more supported and bc if that it will have to go deeper and the deeper in Lebanon the worse they have it. It also might mean that the breaches the IDF hoped to operate through will need to be fewer in number and Hezbollah can more easily concentrate defenders to contain the breaches once made.

>I think we can partially credit the wins of Hezbollah to 3 very important things, opportunity, time, and old ass American night fighting doctrine.

>Opportunity, First the IOF in the north finally left their bunkers and rat holes. Hezbollah light infantry finally have decent targets and have been hardened by a year of stealthy skirmishing against IOF surveillance.

>Time, there has been a lot of prep time and with 20 years and only so many crossings it makes sense there are ambush plans and IED plans and prepositioned equipment for all of them, the party of god simply need to choose to utilize particular points based on manpower and operational considerations.

>Doctrine, the Americans got some very bad ideas from fighting the Iraqi army twice. The worst one and one that it’s been trying to shake off for a long time is “we own the night” American and western planners sought to leverage their night vision advantage to create massive routs on enemy forces.

>The issue is now everyone has it in some form or fashion and that second it’s something that can been done in large conventional contexts to sneak around brigades and stuff at night over roads but simply attacking a prepared position with dug in defenders you might actually want to be able to detect defenders more than you want to not be detected.

>Attacking at night makes many complications for the attacker and the more for the defenders but if the defenders are dug in ambush positions it is much less of a big deal.

>The border is rough terrain and arguably the reason it’s the border is that Jewish tanks couldn’t be brought to bear effectively past that point in the first few Jewish wars. This is going to be an infantry fight were Hezbollah can absolutely go toe to toe with the IDF and then guerrilla fight where they are in their element the deeper the Jews get in. The Jews will be punished more the deeper they penetrate.

Public

Notices

Feeds