Conversation

First thing is AI.

Is this worth 20 min of watching? AI is not coming for any devs job any time soon (unless you want wrong answers only).

The reason for the tech layoffs is super simple. Companies vastly over hired in 2020 for way too much. My friends in Finance at Amazon told me they were hiring devs for ~220k, not including options. Some Total Comp (TC) got over $300k. That's really insane, even for like a SRE or DevOps person who puts in 50~60 hours a week.

What resulted is pretty much just a correction. Does he get into that in this video? Because if he doesn't, he's skipping the very obvious answer.

My predicts from July of 2022 was that people who were laid off, who work remotely, bought houses in TX/TN/NC/etc. for Chicago and NYC prices .. raising the floor of single family homes to $300k:

https://battlepenguin.com/tech/the-coming-dot-com-bust-and-the-future-of-remote-work/

I thought eventually we'd see another housing collapse by now. Layoffs would mean people walked away from $1800/month mortgages they couldn't afford and housing would get sucked up by all the Blackrock/Vanguard backed rental companies.

Some of that has happened ... but new housing construction hasn't slowed down here in TN. People are still buying houses. Locals now understand that $300k floor isn't going back down ever. Local wages for skilled workers are rising to grab some of that influx, along with other remote work.

The commercial real estate market hasn't collapsed yet either. I'm not sure if maybe this is being propped up so it will happen under Trump/24 instead so they can blame him, but I have my doubts. I think my predictions didn't pan out.