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Dark Jaguar said: It seems like the more we study AI, the more aspects of our own intelligence we discover that we didn't quite account for in the past. Wheels of Confusion replied: This is definitely the case with early AI research. Marvin Minsky is reportedly said to have thought a smart, general-purpose AI would be done in a few semesters with the right team of grad students. As reported in Time back in 1970: “Marvin Minsky … a 42-year-old polymath who has made major contributions to Artificial Intelligence, recently told me with quiet certitude: “In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being. I mean a machine that will be able to read Shakespeare, grease a car, play office politics, tell a joke, have a fight. At that point the machine will begin to educate itself with fantastic speed. In a few months it will be at genius level and a few months after that its powers will be incalculable.” “When I checked Minsky’s prophecy with other people working on Artificial Intelligence … many of them said that Minsky’s timetable might be somewhat wishful — “give us 15 years,” was a common remark — but all agreed that there would be such a machine and that it could precipitate the third Industrial Revolution, wipe out poverty and roll up centuries of growth in science, education, and the arts.”