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@rher @GoodBoyUV @sickburnbro Interestingly Von Moltke is one of the few people born in the 18th century who we have a voice recording of.
In relation to Project Ukraine, for close to 2 years it has been the fashion statement for all of the best people in the Global American empire. Celebrities from all over the West have made a trip to Kiev to be seen with Zelensky, who has also toured the world to visit the most important people and ask them for money. In the last 3 months that has all of a sudden changed. Zelensky is finding it hard to get anyone to take his calls, much less visit. The war in the Levant has made him and Project Ukraine last year’s fashion.
Things are not going well for Ukraine. The long-promised offensive that kicked off in the summer has ground to an unglamourous halt. Ukraine lost most of the equipment GAE sent along with tens of thousands of men barely making a dint in Russia's lines. Russia captured more territory than the Ukrainians during the Ukrainian offensive.
Now the war is entering a new phase with Ukraine having lost much of its offensive potential in the counter-offensive. It is hard to estimate the size of the AFU, but even if the high estimates for losses are correct, the AFU probably has a force of about 150,000. They are also on a munition diet as aid is drying up.
There is some speculation that the Russians could stage a winter breakout from the south, like they did against the Germans in the battle of Kursk. There is no evidence to suggest the Russians have such a plan. Th Russian plan is to reduce their losses to the absolute minimum by grinding down the Ukrainians with superior artillery and air power.
The one exception is a heavily fortified town in Donetsk called Avdiivka. The Russians are executing an encircling operation against some of the best Ukrainian units. This is one of those key strongholds along the line of contact that Ukraine will defend to the last man.
Where things have changed the most over the last several months is in the north where the Russians have made big gains. AFU stripped these lines for the offensive in the south, which allowed the Russians to break through at Kupiansk. If the Russians are able to secure this city, it sets them up to move south towards Izyum and Kramatorsk, where the command and control of the Ukraine army is located.
Just note that territory is secondary in this war. The game is to kill as many opposing men as possible while losing as few men as possible. This is the game the Russians have been playing for over a year now. As a result, their casualties have fallen sharply since the early days of the war. AFU, being run by idiotic Americans who think war is a football game, has been trying to take territory, which has resulted in huge losses in men and material.
That is what will happen in 24, Russia has been slowly building its forces over the last year. Russia has three quarters of a million men in and around the front. Ukraine is probably down to 150,000. Russia is well supplied in terms of equipment and munitions, and enjoy air superiority (not supremacy).
The result is a very large, well-supplied army on one side, content to pound away at a smaller army from a distance. That smaller army is finding it hard to maintain its supply lines. This rather frank story from Time hints that the army is no longer following orders from the government.
time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/
Add in the sudden disinterest from GAE and things look bleak for Ukraine. They are facing a slow death at the hands of a superior army.
This is where things get interesting. Ukrainian victory is off the table and stalemate unlikely. That leaves one option for GAE. The problem is GAE has boxed itself in with its rhetoric and actions. If in the end Ukraine collapses and Russia installs a new government, GAE will declare it all illegal and refuse to recognize the new government.
Cont....
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@Aether @GoodBoyUV @rher @sickburnbro Lyle just likes to sperg on anything that doesn't excoriate Russia, he's like Turdicus in that way. Just leave him be and mire at his gains.
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@Aether @rher @sickburnbro The author of that Time article that everyone loves to pretend is a big gotcha because it's the West admitting defeat or something is a pro-Russian born in Russia who said that Ukraine would accept the Russian with open arms instead of fighting back so I wouldn't take it too seriously, didn't read the rest since it's clearly copy pasted lol.
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@GoodBoyUV @rher @sickburnbro Whatever brainlet.
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@rher @GoodBoyUV @sickburnbro From above...
Ukraine has no good options. Zelensky may have gone mad under the pressure of the last two years. Regardless, it is unlikely the Russians will agree to deal with him in a peace settlement. If he reaches out to Moscow, his (((own people))) will kill him, probably at the request of the CIA. On the other hand, if they fight to the last Ukrainian, the army will eventually revolt and kill the political leadership, think of it as a reverse Red October where the jews are removed from power. The only hope is some new event forces the Russians to end the war on their own.
As for Russia, the war is just one part of a larger geopolitical strategy that looks far past the Ukraine situation. The cost of the war in terms of men and material is manageable. Russia now has the largest, best equipped and experienced army in Europe so they can continue the SMO as long as needed. They see the impact it is having on the European satrap political class and their relationship with GAE. It is also slowly draining the EU economically. For now, the best option for Russia is to keep doing what they are doing and prepare for the inevitable breaks in the opposition.
With a presidential election coming up in 2024, GAE is trying to flick the Ukraine problem off, hoping it sticks to the European satraps. The Europeans are noticing this and are starting to look for a way to avoid being stuck with Ukraine. Russia is not about to help and allow the fate of Ukraine to become their problem, at least not yet. The result is Ukraine will become an economic, demographic, and social catastrophe.
Aether
The Forbidden Dreamer
GoodBoyLyle :ov: :sonnenrad: 🚪 :catnoears:
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